Tuesday, December 9, 2008

China vs. US: Ultimate Economic Showdown Part II


In an article I wrote on October 28th of this year entitled: “China vs. US: Ultimate Economic Showdown,” I made some controversial statements about how the US was losing political and economic clout on the world stage, and how that vacuum of power could let others like China, India, and Japan take a stronger role, especially given the state of the world economy last quarter from the Emerginvest heat map:


One of the ways in which evidence of a tectonic shift in political and economic power has occurred is in those who are able to help the economies which suffered the worst at the hands of the global storm. Traditionally, the US and Europe have been able to come to the rescue of weaker/developing countries which have needed assistance. However, as the US and Europe are reeling from a constant stream of shocks to their economies, they need to focus all of their attention on stabilizing themselves before they can significantly help other markets. This leaves cash-rich nations like China, Japan, and Saudi Arabia to potentially fill the gap.
In addition, the tremendous amount of national debt the U.S. has been carrying weighs heavily as US-dominance of world markets is being called into question.
Even more evidence has been leaking out of China and Japan about the role the US should play in the next phase of the international economic sphere. In an article published today on the front page of the “International Finance” section of the Wall Street Journal entitled: “China Asserts Its Voice on Crisis,” Jin Liqun, chairman of China Investment Corp., and former vice-president of the Asian Development Bank as well as China’s former vice minister of finance, came out with some of his strongest language to date:
“China should be and will be playing an even greater role in this process, but I don’t think China can be a leading player.”
The WSJ article further discusses Mr. Jin’s viewpoint: “Mr. Jin said China doesn’t have the answers on how to create a proper global regulatory regime. However, he also doubted that Western systems he once admired could provide all the answers either. ‘There is no such thing as international best practice, only an approximation.’ We are all developing countries. We all learn from our mistakes.”
My translation: a not so subtle way of saying that the US and other developed countries do not hold nearly as much power as they claim to have – citing debt and regulatory issues which helped produce the crisis as examples of their fallibility.
“…China’s role as one of the largest creditors to the U.S…. Those holdings by China and other developing countries will dominate the conversations, but the dialogue should be done on equal footing, Mr. Jin said on the sidelines of the China Financial markets conference,” the article further stated. It is unquestionable that the US has lost its economic super-power status that it held until recently. Certainly, the US still has sheer economic size and output, however the age when large economic blocks (China, the EU, US, India, Russia, the Middle East, Africa) will share global economic power on a much more equal footing.

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